If now asked to define the essential difference between the first and second demographic transitions, I would simply say that while the first, the traditional demographic transition, was a long term consequence of the decline in mortality, the second transition should be interpreted as a consequence of fertility declining way below the levels long thought plausible[...]

It is a truism to observe that just as social change was the underlying cause of the first demographic transition, it is the underlying cause of the second. Social change has three distinct dimensions and comes in various guises. The dimensions are structural, cultural, and technological in nature. Depending on the perspective chosen, social change is sometimes equated with ‘modernization’, sometimes with westernization’ or ‘technological civilization’. Nowadays the term ‘post-modernization’ is also frequently encountered; it is then used to describe a form of social change considered specific for the present era.

There is no doubt at all, that all three dimensions of social change have played a role, and will continue to play a role, in the important demographic shifts just reviewed[...] I have no quarrel at all with scholars who point at such structural shifts when they search for an explanation of the population trends observed since the mid-sixties. But, with Ariès I feel that there is more on people’s mind than concern about economic wellbeing, income, and material resources. Etienne van de Walle, expressed these sentiments very well when he argued that what we see in demographic behaviour is a ‘translation’ of cultural representations. Decisive, so it would
seem to me, is what people want out of life. What is the end state they aspire to? How do they look upon themselves as human beings? Do they live life in order to gain an ever blissful and happy afterlife? Or do they only recognize the one life as it is to be lived here and now?

The full introduction to the crucial concept of Second Demographic Transition below, as introduced by one of its first proponents, Dirk J. van de Kaa

The Idea of a Second Demographic Transition in Industrialized Countries - Dirk J. van de Kaa

"While the European populations are shrinking and the best-qualified young people are leaving, we continue to allow mass immigration of unqualified Muslims, who will soon make our welfare states collapse. Add to this the fact that the Muslim world has built up a "youth bulge", which according to experience will lead to mass murder and whose effects cannot be offset by foreign aid. The originator of these bleak predictions is the German sociologist Gunnar Heinsohn, who believes that the game is over for Europe"

Interview: A Continent of Losers
gunnar heinsohn - sappho

Eric Kaufmann At the Festival of Dangerous Ideas -Western modernity is threatened by population expansion of the religious, decline of liberal secularism and the rise of religious conservatism. Eric Kaufmann, author of Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?: Demography and Politics in the 21st Century, presents compelling arguments and evidence to the Festival of Dangerous Ideas, suggesting that the reports of the decline of religion are greatly exaggerated. Kaufmann researches and teaches politics and sociology at the University of London.Sydney Opera House, October 2010

I invite everyone to seek out inconsistencies of logical or empirical nature in my analysis .
However I do not expect this to be an easy task.
And should be done only to question my conclusions.
obviously different conclusions can be drawn on this subject.
But anyone in agreement with the analysis and the conclusions, will not object
to the practical suggestions I make.
It does not make sense to argue about the practical suggestions
before agreement is achieved with regard to analysis and conclusions
If we were to conduct political debates by first settling matters with regard to analysis and conclusions, and there after proceed to the discussion of practical policy suggestions
the, 80 percent of all political debate would be uncalled for,
and the remaining 20 percent so much more fertile
But by and large this order of progression is inverted in the political arena.
also in regard to the topics I adress. in my book
The chapters on integration and immigration, are bound to cause a more intense debate.
And that is all good, but this should not lead to an overly narrow view of things.
I have therefore summarised my main points as follows:

1. No Immigration-policy, in whatever shape or form, is able to solve the key problem of our demographic development. Namely, that each generation is around one third smaller than the one that came before. And that within this declining number of children, the relative number of children stemming from uneducated households is constantly on the increase.

2.Education is very important. But education is quickly becoming a new fetish of our society,
and whoever believes that these problems can be solved through more education alone,
is bound to making us live a lie.

3: Immigrants are not simply immigrants.
Immigrants from Eastern Europe India China and Vietnam pose no integrational problems at all
in their second generation.
By that time, these immigrants have a higher level of education and a better employment rate
than do indiginous Germans.
10-11 million immigrants in Germany, and their descendants have no integrational problems in their second generation. They constitute an economical and cultural benefit to Germany.

4th: All important economic and cultural problems of integration are concentrated around the 4-6 million immigrants from Muslim countries. The succesful integration of muslim immigrants already
living among us, has to have absolute priority over further immigration from muslim countries. When it comes to these immigrants education and employment in the 2. and 3. generation is far below that of Germans, other immigrant groups and their descendants.
And nothing seems to support the case for any sufficient improvements over time on this matter

5th: A troubling tendency to form parallel societies is evident.
Only 3 percent of the second generation of turkish immigrants marry a German citizen,
whereas 70 percent of russian immigrants intermarry.

6th: As far as I can tell, these problems are not caused by their ethnic back-ground
It is the Islamic culture which is responsible for the problems.
This culture shapes the values and life-style of a large part of the muslim immigrants,
and is only marginally compatible with secular western society.
This is particularly evident in Great Britian, with the very dissimilar integration of immigrants from India on the one hand and Pakistan and Bangladesh on the other.
These problems burdens not just Germany, but all the European countries with a significant number of muslim immigrants.

7th: The problems of economic and cultural integration of immigrants from islamic countries means that the economic and societal impact of immigration from these countries is unquestionably negative to the host society.
As long as the cultural make-up of these immigrants does not undergo a fundamental change, they will create addtional economic and social problems, not ease the demographic shifts

8th: The German and European wellfare-state model is not free of blame. The basic social security benefits for an immigrant family in Germany far exceed any realistic appraisal of the income they could obtain in say eastern Turkey or Libanon without any family member being employd. The vastly improved integration of the same immigrant groups in the US, is mainly due to the fact that they there either provide for themselves, leave the country or not arrive in the first place

9th: the economic growth in later months and the increased demand for work, has lead to a short-sighted debate about immigration policy. Is it not ironic? For the past 45 years our self-imposed demographic pithole draws closer. With the precision of a clock-work, and the pace and weight of an iceberg. And now, that this pithole shows itself in the labor market, everybody seems frantically astonished.
The highest birthrate in germany, was achieved in 1965. That generation is now 45 years old. They are at the peak of their career and productivity and is now entering the socalled „decling years“. Who are to assume their duties?
1,45 million 45-year olds in Germany currently, but only 950.000 20-year olds and 600.000 one-year olds
hectic does not lead anywhere, reflection is demanded, and learning from our own mistakes.
Immigrants who rejects our culture; has no education; are mostly attracted by the social benefits and the prospect of bringing in large numbers of family relatives... They will in the long run cost our society more than they pay into it.
Many people now want to implement a point-based system or use the american green-card model for immigrants. I am in favor hereof. If Germany had had a system resembling that of Australia New Zealand, Canada or the US. With high barriers for the unskilled, and no social benefits for immigrants then around 90 percent of the Muslim immigrants now living in germany would never have come here. I would like to stress this point

Good lecture by the outstanding demographer, Philip Longman. The study referred to embedded below.
The film Demographic Winter can be seen here


Value Orientation and Demography






Phillip Longman argues that, although overpopulation has long been seen as one of the most serious dangers facing the globe, just the opposite is true. Longman, a senior fellow at the New American Foundation and author of The Next Progressive Era, explains that, as countries get richer, their populations age and birthrates plummet. This is not just a problem of rich countries: the developing world is also aging fast. Falling birthrates do bring short term benefits, but also present tremendous challenges to a global economic system premised on continuous population growth. Longman talks about the population implosion and how we can help families and the world build a sustainable future.

This program is presented in collaboration with the Old South Meeting House as part of the Partners in Public Dialogue Series.

Interesting short documentary in which Norma McCorvey admits that Roe vs Wade was a fraud and tells the story of how the case has influenced her life

Norma McCorvey, "Jane Roe" of Roe v. Wade, never could have imagined the outcome of her deception: 4,000 abortions a day since 1973. Norma never had an abortion, but her Supreme Court case brought abortion on demand to America. Darkness and disillusionment plagued her life with baby parts, alcohol, drugs, and suicidal attempts. The power of prayer plus the loving actions of a little girl and others drove Norma from working in an abortion center into the arms of Jesus.

Joyce Zounis' choice of abortion, not once but seven times, nearly cost her life. Tormented by disbelief, she lived a nightmare of anger, guilt, and disconnection. She grieves not only for her seven children but also for the heritage of their children.

Demographic Bomb: demography is destiny (the long awaited part two), uncovers how population control programs, organizations, institutions, governments and the United Nations manipulated and coerced people, evaded political accountability and acted in underhanded ways targeting the poor and violating human rights. But their greatest impact was in the developed world.

Demographic Bomb shows what happens when countries comprising 80% of the world's economy have plummeting numbers of workers and innovators, falling consumer spending, and not enough young to support the old.

Demographic Winter predicted the financial crash of 2008. Demographic Bomb reveals how it is just the beginning.

DVDs available here

Review from scribd by one of the interviewed participants

Demographic Winter Wonderland
thanks to vladtepes